In our world, 2 + 2 goes not equal 4. As well, 2 + 2 + 2 does not equal 6. That’s for no other reason than a team with 12 guys at 6 WAR each will beat a team with 36 guys at 2 WAR all day long. So, for this particular deal to have worked out, Beckett for roughly a 5th, 10th and 15th, and arguably for any “dilute the superstar” deal to work out, one of those picks had to hit pay dirt or the deal was a bust. There were easier ways to get a handful of average players than to trade away the best and only thing that team ever had. But because I was set to receive the “next great Yankee ace” back, plus two high-end insurance policies for my trouble, that was all taken care of. Or so I thought.
Prospect guides don’t really seem to tout guys the way they used to. It’s hard to envision a major prospect resource putting their necks on the line with statements like “the next great Yankee ace” anymore. There’s been more than enough faceplants out there to keep any well-seasoned prognosticator from ever getting too excited, ever again. The fact is, a lot of players come through that have the potential to do a lot of things, but which ones will actually fulfill their promise is impossible to know. The best we can do is make some association between ability and outcome, but that is anything but a safe bet.
Phil Hughes is a perfect example. He was prospect perfection. He threw hard, had great secondary stuff, had excellent command, had a good baseball body, played for the Yankees…he basically was everything a team could hope for in a prospect. Phil, of course, never reached the lofty heights forecast of him. Clay Buchholz didn’t really either. He put out a couple of nice cards, but all and all, fell pretty far short of what was hoped of him. Cameron Maybin fell quite a bit short as well. And now, some ten years later, can anyone really say why?
Because no one should have had those expectations on them in the first place! That gets my vote anyway. The sniff test is a valid one; there are though smells that the human nose cannot and will not ever be able to detect. Which is why stripping this thing down to just the numbers will give us a valuable look. Onto the show…
What could I have expected to get for a #3 overall? What can anyone expect to get from a top 5 overall?
Below are draft years 2001-2006. It’s a small sample but a
sample nonetheless. The numbers in each box are career WAR.
About half of the guys listed are still playing, few though have
much probability to add significantly to their WAR totals from
this point forward.
the high end was the first pick in 2001, 101 WAR, the owner of
which is none other than Albert Pujols. It is probably fair to
say that Pujols provided about as much as anyone can hope to get
out of a draft pick, ever. (Mike Trout though is on pace to
obliterate that total – 48.5 WAR in just 5 full seasons - he
will almost certainly end up as the new gold standard.)
(FINAL NOTES from the WOLFMAN:
We want to thank Chuck again for sharing his new and exciting article for our members. As
always, its quite interesting to see where Chuck takes us in his
articles as he is a great strat
story teller.. Again, we are always open to new ideas and
submissions by our members and perhaps (we hope) that Chuck has
been an inspiration for you that you might consider to
send to us one of your own offerings. As stated before, Chuck as
always is up for chatting about Strat, reach him at:
♦ INTERVIEW with RON SHANDLER, Baseball Fantasy Expert, Throughout the fantasy baseball world, in all the various forms of Fantasy Baseball, there is no one more well known and respected as Ron Shandler. He started the website Baseball HQ, the very successful baseball guide called Baseball Forecaster and now he offers the new BABS Project for winning in your fantasy league. We had the chance to speak to Ron and to get to know him a bit better as well as find out what the BABS project is all about in Part I, of a two part interview series we will be doing with him.
♦ ARTICLE with WOLFMAN SHAPIRO - Wolfman Challenges STPC Worlds Champion Pete Nelson, The Strat Tournament Players Club, is known as the most expansive and challenging series of Strat-o-matic Baseball Draft tournaments world wide. Pete Nelson has been one of the main organizers and supporters of these tournaments for many years as well as one of their repeat champions in their classic Worlds Tournaments. Pete lives close by to our editor Wolfman in the Seattle area, so at the end of January, these two giants played a best of seven game series following the tournament rules of this club. Find out how this epic battle of SOM Baseball heavies went ....
♦ SOM Baseball and MLB World News - March 2017, This is our periodic column where we share any exciting news and updates linked to either the SOM World or MLB. In this issue, we share a story about "Opening Day" at the Strat-o-matic Game Company you have never heard, along with another report from another newsletter member of their experience at this year's "Opening Day". We also share another analysis from Baseball Info Solutions done by strat gamer and the owner, John Dewan about how to evaluate Up-the-Middle Performances of various MLB teams ....
♦STRAT WISE with MARC WASSERMAN commissioner of the Cyber Baseball Association (CBA) continues his new column sharing various perspectives on SOM Baseball. For his article this month he discusses about vintage strat-o-matic cards and how to find the best deals and prices to get them.
♦INTERVIEW with CHRIS WILLIAMS, Strat Baseball Author, Chris is a fellow strat baseball gamer and new member to our newsletter who has just recently become the author of a new book through Acta Sports by the title of, "Coulda Woulda Shoulda", a very entertaining book about "What If" scenarios that might have changed the history of baseball. In this interview, meet Chris and find out more about his new book.
♦SOM BASEBALL LEAGUE REPORT with WOLFMAN SHAPIRO -- the editor of "The Ultimate Strat Newsletter" and 2012 CBA Champion, turns his attention to talk to members of various face-to-face Strat-o-matic Baseball Leagues that he has discovered through the league registry service offered on the Strat-o-matric website. Each commissioner speaks about the history of their league and their experiences. To read the interview for this month, click on the link below:
INTERVIEW with HARRIS JESSOP, Winter Need a Life League Commissioner (Netplay)
♦ ARTICLE with WOLFMAN SHAPIRO - How to Setup Your Draft League Team, the Final Part of this article, Wolfman, finish the last segment of this three part article to share with our members the meat and potatoes of his various strategies how to build his 2017 Skokie Wolfmen in the CBA, a Keepers computer league. In this segment, he discusses the results of the CBA draft held in early March with both this written article and some supplemental entertaining videos. By using his team as an example, you may receive from this article some suggestions and new strategies you can use to help build your own team and bring to your fans a league's championship.
♦RECOMMEND ON-LINE SOM RESOURCES -- On-line Strat-o-matic and Baseball related websites that offer amazing information, special tools and products to improve your game play that we strongly recommend. In most cases, we have had personal contact with these sources who agree with the idea and key principle about working together to help promote each other.
♦BOOKS TO DIE FOR and Become a BASEBALL GURU -- This page is specifically about special books we are finding that either will expand your insights about the game of Baseball, help you in the creation of your current league teams or with your replays and learn more about the Strat-o-matic Baseball Game and Game Company's history. We have a special arrangement with Acta Sports, who is a publisher of a number of great baseball books (including Bill James Handbooks) to offer for our members a 10% discount. We will continue to add more books to this page in the future as we uncover other gems our members should know about.
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