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Vol. IV, Issue #4 - May 2016

** Special Article by Matt Eddy **

(Matt Eddy is a main writer and editor for Baseball America which focuses upon
young prospect players as well as helps with the website and blog of his Strat League)


(
Comments from the Wolfman: 
I want to thank Matt for sharing with our members this special article focusing on how to build your playoff roster.  Obviously if Baseball America is going to employ Matt as one of their key writers, we need to listen to his insights as this is no ordinary baseball journalist.  We did interview Matt in the January issue of this year's newsletter, the link is below if you don't remember who he is and his philosophy.  I think in the photo below, we learn a great deal about what makes Matt happy by what his shirt says.  Below is the link to Matt's interview:

http://www.ultimatestratbaseball.com/USBN-1-2016/MattEddy-January2016.htm

{Our interview with Matt and introduction to our members}

Ok then, let's enjoy this new Matt Eddy original, are ya ready?)
 



Ultimate Strat Baseball Newsletter, Matt Eddy editor Baseball America, webmaster MMDA Strat-o-matic Baseball LeagueTen Ways To Build A
Better Playoff Roster

by Matt Eddy

Strategies that produce results over the course of 162 games don’t necessarily translate to the 12 wins required to taste champagne in the standard three-round Strat playoff format. I learned this the hard way with early playoff exits in each of my first three Octobers in my 20-team league.

Not until my fifth postseason appearances did I make a real breakthrough, and not until my seventh did I bring home a World Series ring.

Looking back, I don’t think my team’s overall talent level improved over time as much as shifting priorities allowed me to become a better roster architect. I learned to maximize each of the 25 spots on my playoff roster and to edit the roster in such a way that emphasized important traits for postseason success, sometimes at the expense of a few 
regular-season wins.

But as any baseball fan knows, even the best-laid plans can go astray. That’s because the difference between the optimal baseball strategy and the next-best strategy is infinitesimal. To win consistently, the manager can’t rely on one great personnel decision or even one great high-leverage decision in the heat of competition. Instead, the successful manager must stack one optimal strategy on top of another and rely on the cumulative effect of those decisions to carry the day.

I will share some of my philosophies about roster construction in this piece, but be warned: I do not consider myself a master dugout strategist. I’m probably about average, and in terms of credentials, I am entering my 15th season in a 20-team league, and I have eight postseason appearances on my résumé. I have managed probably less than half as many Strat games as most newsletter readers, so caveat emptor.

1. Consider moving your best hitters to higher positions in the lineup.

The postseason is not the time to bow to tradition, so set aside the notion of what constitutes a "traditional" lineup. The average game in a 20-team Strat league sees 38 batters per side make a plate appearance (my league averaged 38.1 PA per game in 2015 and 38.5 in the preceding two seasons), so give yourself the best chance at a comeback by sending your best hitters to the plate in the ninth inning against the other team’s fire-breathing closer. That will happen more often if you place top overall batters in the Nos. 1 and 2 positions, meaning they will be the 37th and 38th batters of the game. Even if those lineup spots come up in the eighth inning in a close game, that’s still a high-leverage situation against a top reliever, just probably not the closer.

2. Don’t build an offense over-reliant on hitting home runs to win.

On the whole, you will face stronger pitching staffs in the postseason, and high-quality staffs typically feature pitchers who don’t have as many natural home runs units or ballpark diamonds on their cards. Also, evidence presented by SOM World suggests you will see fewer hitter’s parks in October, further depressing home run chances. These conditions can be hazardous for the homer-happy team.

Additionally, relying on home runs to win becomes a lower-probability strategy if your team falls behind early. While the home run may be the ultimate equalizer in baseball, hitting one in the late innings against a wave of high-leverage, strikeout-machine relievers has become a decreasingly poor strategy.

3. Your lefthanded-hitting slugger might be a mark for opposing managers.

In the early days of my Strat career, I built offenses around Adam Dunn, Curtis Granderson and other lefthanded hitters who would trash the below-average righthanded starters and relievers they would see regularly during the season. But the roles reversed in the postseason, when Dunn and Granderson became the marks for other managers. The reason is simple: For the majority of power-hitting lefthanded hitters, the left-on-left platoon split favors the pitcher to such an extent that the outcome of the at-bat is nearly a foregone conclusion: automatic out. And the bad news for batters like Dunn or Granderson is that nearly every playoff team will have a lefthanded reliever who allows few hit or on-base chances, and he will be available for all crucial late-inning situations. Consider this: The top 20 left-on-left relievers in the 2016 set average about 7 hit chances, 13 on-base chances and 37 strikeout chances versus lefties.

The best way to protect yourself in these situations is to either (1) focus on low-strikeout lefthanded hitters who have lots of hit chances versus lefties on their card, or (2) stock your bench with righthanded-hitting "enforcers" to discourage your opponent from bringing his lefty reliever into the game for fear that reliever will be pitted against a powerful righty batter. If you have a good team, then you probably have such righty batters lying around for platoon usage.

4. Don't forget to pack strong defensive backups at shortstop and catcher.

Like many managers, I like to prioritize defense at shortstop and catcher, even if I have to accept poor hitting in the deal. Ideally I’ll have a shortstop with at least a 2 range rating and a catcher with at least a —2 arm. One reason I am willing to overlook offense at these positions is because acquiring shortstops and catchers who can hit is often a cost-prohibitive strategy. Furthermore, I’m typically not picking high enough in the draft to select the top prospects at these positions. That’s OK, because as long as you get defense from shortstop and catcher, you can work around those players’ batting deficiencies. But to do so you need to be able to pinch-hit with impunity for your light-hitting shortstop and catcher, both of whom will typically be batting seventh, eighth or ninth in the lineup. The best way to feel secure about pulling your plus defensive shortstop or catcher from the game is to have another shortstop with 2 range and catcher with a —2 arm on the bench to serve as substitutes.

Overall, it’s a fine idea to stock a strong-armed backup catcher, regardless, because a —2 or —3 arm behind the plate will pair well with most closers, who often struggle to hold runners close. Selected closers with their hold ratings in the 2016 set: Wade Davis (+4), Dellin Betances (+9), Kenley Jansen (+5), Aroldis Chapman (+5) and Craig Kimbrel (+9).

5. Playoff batteries typically have a better than average ability to control the running game.

Catchers for playoff teams usually have strong arms, and starting pitchers for those teams often have good hold ratings, particularly in a 20-team league. This combination can dampen the impact of a stolen base-centric offense in the playoffs, when successful steals will be harder to come by.

However, players with great steal ability will often be able to capitalize on relievers, who typically cannot hold runners as well as starters. (The top 30 starters have an average hold rating of about 0, while that rating for the top 30 relievers is about +2.) Additionally, speedy players are important to offensive functionality because they are more likely to advance from first-to-third or from second-to-home on base hits. Those runs add up, so don’t overlook team speed. Jus don’t count on the stolen base being a key postseason strategy.

6. Think of strikeout units as a clutch rating for pitchers.

While teams can win in the regular season without a great strikeout pitching staff, the postseason is a different animal. Playoff lineups tend to become deeper because managers no longer have to worry about usage limitations. Benches tend to be deeper, too, because teams can carry fewer pitchers in the postseason. So make sure your pitching staff comes armed with plenty of strikeout units, for the strikeout truly is the pitcher’s best friend. A third strike requires no assist from the defense and always prevents base runners from advancing. A well-timed strikeout can absolve many sins.

Think of how frustrated you feel when your No. 3 and No. 4 batters strike out with a runner in scoring position to end an inning. Having a high-strikeout staff can inflict that pain on your opponent. Because base runners are going to happen, you want to be the team whose pitching staff strands the most opposing runners in scoring position.

7. Rangy, sure-handed middle infielders can stave off big innings.

Middle infielders handle more X-Rolls than any other two players on the diamond put togehter. In fact, a full-time shortstop handles roughly 190 X-Roll chances per season, or nearly 30 for every 100 times he bats. A second baseman handles roughly 160 chances per season, or 25 for every 100 times he bats.

While it may be obvious that you want strong defenders handling all those X-Rolls, you might not realize that all X-Rolls are not created equal. For example, a hit allowed with the bases empty and two outs is often harmless, but the same is not true of any botched X-Roll chance when the infield has a chance to convert a double play. Any fumbled defensive chance by an infielder with a force play available and fewer than two outs effectively costs your team two outs. Middle infielders are the most likely candidates to receive those clutch defensive chances, so try to play the shortstops and second basemen with the best range ratings and lowest error rates.

8. Don’t shun small-ball strategies, and while you’re at it, consider using a skilled bat-handler in the nine-hole.

As one seasoned Strat manager with multiple league titles to his name once told me: Playing for an early lead can pay off in the postseason, even if the early lead is achieved through small-ball tactics. The benefit of managing from a one- or two-run lead from the middle innings onward often outweighs the cost in terms of small-ball outs consumed. That’s because the manager with the lead is more likely to leverage his relievers for maximum effect and keep his best defenders on the field. He also has the luxury of pinch-hitting for insurance runs when the opportunity arises, and in many cases his opponent won’t be using his "A" relievers or might have pinch-hit plus defenders out of the lineup.

On the topic of small ball, I like to place a batter with a strong bunt and hit-and-run rating in the nine-hole. That way if the No. 9 hitter bats with a runner on first or second, he can roll "off the pitcher’s card" by bunting or initiating a hit-and-run to advance the baserunner and set up the top of the lineup for an RBI chance. This is especially useful when facing a stud pitcher who isn’t likely to yield a hit or walk, especially to a powerless No. 9 hitter.

9. Don’t overlook the utility of a long reliever—or relievers in general.

I especially like to carry a lefthanded starter in the bullpen to use in long-relief situations, whether those situations are relieving for a righthanded starter who exits early or for games that go extra innings. Most playoff teams are geared to emphasize their primary—or versus righthander—lineup, so introducing a lefty to the mix at an unpredictable time can leave some of your opponent’s lefthanded batters exposed, or possibly convince him to pinch-hit them out of the game.

A perfect example of the utility of a long reliever comes courtesy of Drew Smyly from my team’s 2015 playoff run. In a terse six-game series in which me and my opponent tussled for a combined 19 extra innings in Games 2, 3, 5 and 6, Smyly delivered seven scoreless frames, picking up two wins, including the "W" in the Game 6 clincher. With the lower run-scoring environment of today and the comparative quality of playoffs teams, extra-inning games are to be expected. Carry a long reliever and don’t be caught off guard.

In general, don’t overlook the importance of high-quality relievers if you want to win. It may feel unsatisfying to use a second-round pick on a reliever who probably will deliver only one or two good cards, but every team needs about 500 relief innings, and every team will be hitting the reliever market hard in the draft. So if you have a pennant contender, do everything you can to add bullpen depth on draft day. Just remember: If you don’t draft a reliever now, then you’ll just have to trade draft picks for one during the season. Your options will be more plentiful in the draft.

10. The singles hitter might be more valuable to your offense than a slugger

It doesn’t make for the same snappy headline, but it’s probably more accurate to say that adding an on-base-oriented hitter will be more valuable to your offense than adding a slugging-only hitter (unless your team has absolutely no power). In a playoff environment, sluggers will be batting with fewer runners on base, thus decreasing the weighted value of the home runs they do hit. And remember, even the best home run hitters like Jose Bautista or Miguel Cabrera or Chris Davis go deep in only about 5 to 6 percent of their plate appearances, which means that about 95 percent of the time they bat, they won’t be going yard.

One factor that benefits the high-average hitter when compared with the slugging-only hitter is that the former’s myriad hit chances actually accomplish two things. Base hits simultaneously drive in runs and also set the table for subsequent scoring strikes in the inning. A home run accomplishes only the former, for it empties the bases and allows the pitcher/defense to start fresh. As outlined above, the home run is such a comparatively rare occurrence, particularly in the postseason, that a keep-the-line-moving mentality will more likely improve offensive efficiency.

The World Series-winning Giants of 2010, 2012 and 2014, as well as the 2014 and 2015 Royals illustrate the advantages of favoring a churning, on-base-oriented lineup over a homer-centric one.


(NOTES from the Wolfman: We want to thank Matt for contributing this special article to help our members who may have high playoff hopes for their respective leagues this year, some key ideas to consider once you reach the playoffs. Also Matt does request from our readers that if you want to give him some feedback on his list or to discuss his proposals, feel free to email him at: eddymk@yahoo.com

Matt has indicated we may hear from him in the future with other special articles.  One last thing I want to mention, is via Matt's job with Baseball America, he helped us secure a copy of one of the key Fantasy Baseball books they public each year called "Prospect Handbook".  For this issue of our newsletter I am doing a review of this powerful handbook.  You can view my review by clicking here or there is a listing in the our Newsletter options menu below.  Thank you again Matt for being a new contributor for our newsletter.)




 

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Contained inside this exciting issue of Ultimate Strat Baseball Newsletter:
(to view the various interviews, articles, columns and special sections click on the links {underlined}
and this will take you to the appropriate webpage)
 

  RETURN TO NEWSLETTER MAIN PAGE

  INTERVIEW with DON AUGUST, Ex-MLB Pitcher, Don August was a pitcher for the Milwaukee Brewers for four seasons. He talks with the Wolfman about his insights on the game of baseball and what experiences he had during his major league career, as we continue to interview more ex-MLB players, those who we recognize their names from their Strat-o-matic cards in past seasons.

  ARTICLE with CHUCK TINKLER, The next article at the "Chuck Stop" by Chuck, one of our contributing writers, as he finishes his series about the "Strat Master".

  INTERVIEW with BART EWING, Bart Ewing an old friend of the Wolfman's, from the 1970 National Convetion days talks about the art of doing personal replays and what he calls his "Championship Leage" battles in this interview.

  ARTICLE with WOLFMAN SHAPIRO, Wolfman takes a good hard look at the new "Baseball Daily" game play with SOM Baseball as he decides to manage the 2016 Chicago Cubs day by day.  He discusses how this new level of the computer game works.

  SOM BASEBALL LEAGUE REPORT with WOLFMAN SHAPIRO -- the editor of "The Ultimate Strat Newsletter" and 2012 CBA Champion, talks to members of various Strat-o-matic Baseball Leagues that he has discovered on the internet about the history of their league and their experiences. This is the first time we get to speak to a League Commissioner of a Baseball Retro League and how these leagues are different than the normal draft league.  To read the interview, click on the link below:

INTERVIEW with Vinny Manchini, EGML Commissioner, P-VII (Computer)
 

  BASEBALL BOOK REVIEW with WOLFMAN SHAPIRO, editor of "The Ultimate Strat Newsletter" takes a peek at the 2016 Prospect Handbook published by Baseball America and tells you why this book is needed for SOM League Managers using the latest card sets.

  RECOMMEND ON-LINE SOM RESOURCES -- On-line Strat-o-matic and Baseball related websites
that offer amazing information, special tools and products to improve your game play that we strongly recommend. In most cases, we have had personal contact with these sources who agree with the principle to work together and help promote each other.

  BOOKS TO DIE FOR and Become a BASEBALL GURU -- This page is specifically about special books we are finding that either will expand your insights about the game of Baseball, help you in the creation of your current league teams or with your replays and learn more about the Strat-o-matic Baseball Game and Game Company's history.  We have a special arrangement with Acta Sports, who is a publisher of a number of great baseball books (including Bill James Handbooks) to offer for our members a 10% discount. We will continue to add more books to this page in the future as we uncover other gems our members should know about.


 




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