** "Usage 4.2" by Doug Brunet **

As with any competition, a set of rules needs to be established to maintain a sense of fair play and equal opportunity to succeed. In many leagues, the constitutional section concerning usage is at the heart of how a league functions during the course of any given season. It can also affect, to no small degree, the off season. Usage rules tend to have strict limitations with relative associated penalties for transgressions against these limitations. The competition itself drives us to the limits within our respective league’s usage rules. Inevitably, it seems, a particular word rears up in messages, synopses, reports, or what have you…..OVERUSE. Particularly, the overuse of non-pitchers. Usage for pitchers is much more straight forward and easier to follow.

I haven’t played a season yet where overuse has not occurred, and it’s what has given me the thought to compose this article. It isn’t so much that overuse occurs. Of course, any of us may lose track of things for one reason or another. I mean, there are times when I get up from my chair in the living room to go to the kitchen, and for a moment have no concept as to why I’m there. Maybe I was doing the grocery list and went to see if we had any eggs left, but thought of making toast with peanut butter and away go the eggs. Until, of course, I get back to the living room with my toast and see the unfinished grocery list. ‘Oh, yeah, eggs.’ You get the idea.

No, it’s not about overuse exactly, it’s that I’ve come to realize that it generally happens to the same individuals from year to year. This is not meant as a harsh criticism, but rather just a statement of fact. It must be understood that there are many reasons for this. We all lead different lives which involve a variety of circumstances that mitigate the time we have to devote to recreation. Add to that the varying aptitudes for wrapping one’s head around figures and statistics. My intent here is to provide a kind of tool to help some of our fellowship steer away from penalties which cost draft picks, or cause the loss of players to the free agent pool, or whatever penalty system your league imposes for the overuse of players.

From the perspective of a general manager, it’s completely advantageous to have other teams incur penalties. But, from the point of view of a league administrator, it’s quite undesirable. No league commissioner with integrity enjoys imposing penalties. And no GM willingly grants unnecessary advantages to his or her competition. And so, if what follows is of any help to anyone, I’ll be satisfied for my part.

Although there may be variables depending on how many teams are in a league, or to what percentage of usage a league permits within the rules, my conclusions are derived from a 24 team league with 100% of plate appearances (AB+BB) as it’s usage limit with a small hitch at season’s end that has no bearing in this study. Even if your league allows 105%, 110%, etc… the figures hold up upon pro-rating your league rules.

The usage statistics generated by the game already provides us with a wealth of information. The ‘Usage Display’ page in the ‘Team Stats’ menu gives us a percentage of usage and how much remains as a season progresses. For the most part, these figures give us a firm measure of where our team stands at any time. And yet, there must be some inconspicuous factor that leads to overused players other than blatant disregard for rules. We may have a need to translate remaining plate appearances in a way that further provides us with where we stand in relation to what it will take to get through the season within the limits. We need to know whether or not to make a roster move to increase available usage and at what point it may be necessary.

• The average PA (AB+BB only): 6082. P# 4.17.

• Highest PA: 6256. P# 4.29

• Lowest PA: 5890. P# 4.04

Use this formula to determine the P# from past results: P#=PA/(GP*G#).

To illustrate, let’s give values to the variables in the formula to determine the P# for average plate appearances per team for a completed season: 6082/(162*9)=4.17.

To apply a P# to project plate appearances needed for a season: PA=GP*G#*P#.

Before the beginning of a season, if you use 4.2 as the P# you could project the potential need of 6,124 PA for the season with the exception of your pitchers, who don’t normally count against usage. On average, pitchers amount to about a half player for plate appearances. So, teams playing without a DH in the lineup can use 8.5 instead of 9 as the G#. But, just seeing that 4.2 is already higher than the league average, the projection of 6,124 is estimating on the side of caution and can be the first step onto the path of getting through the season without penalty for overuse.

Now, there are a number of instances that cause variations in the average P# for a team during the long 162 game schedule. Most are uncontrollable and inconsequential after the fact when calculating your remaining usage after the season starts.

Whether less or more than average, an unusual amount of extra innings, sacrifices, hit batsmen, double plays, and wins at home, can add or subtract to your team’s overall plate appearances. These are already safeguarded by a P# of 4.2. There are two numbers, however, that have a direct effect on the P# that you may employ for calculating where you are on usage.

Most obviously, a team that scores a lot of runs will turn the lineup over more often than a team that has trouble scoring. Consequently, the P# should be adjusted to anticipate that this will likely be a repeated pattern. If you get to the quarter mark in the season scoring more than your share of runs, you’ll probably continue to do so. But, you don’t have to be scoring a lot to be wary of your usage.

• Avg. Runs per team(162 games): 706

• Avg. LOB: 1120

• Avg. R+LOB: 1826 (11.27 per game)

• Most Runs: 880

• Most LOB: 1204

• Most R+LOB: 2031 (880+1151 : 12.54 per game)

• Least Runs: 535

• Least LOB: 952

• Least R+LOB: 1580 (628+952 : 9.75 per game)

You can add up all the remaining PA for all your outfielders and use that figure with the P# to determine how many man-games remain for 3 positions, and then weigh that against actual games remaining in the season. For example, say you’ve played 70 games and you have 6 players on your roster to cover your outfield. Add the remaining PA from your Usage Display for those 6 players and divide that by the product of the G# and P#. Let’s say the 6 players’ remaining PA’s add up to 1,150, you’re using 4.2 as your P#, and your G# is 3 for the positions in the outfield.

GR=PA/(P#*G#), or 1,150/(4.2*3)=91.3, which is just shy of the 92 games you have left to play. If you’ve been scoring a lot of runs and leaving men on, a P# of 4.3 will drop your available usage to 89 games worth. It’s an indication that a move of some sort may become necessary.

As you can see from the above chart, the leadoff hitter gets to the plate an additional time per game than the 9^th place hitter. That’s 162 times more for a season, which is very significant when planning out your season. For instance, if we are projecting a player like Jose Peraza, the P# can be used to see how many games he could start depending on where he’s placed in the lineup. The G# is not needed for an individual player.

In 72 games for the Reds, Peraza hit .324 with an OBP of .356 and stole 21 bases. Not a bad leadoff hitter, right? Except his 248 PA will limit his playing time. On average, he could be projected to start 54 games leading off. But, if he is placed 9^th in the lineup, the projection is 69 games. (GR = games remaining)

GR=PA/P# : 248/4.6=53.9 leading off or 248/3.6=68.9 batting 9^th.

Find it:  P#=PA/(GP*G#)

Apply it: GR=PA/(P#*G#)