** Strat Thoughts with Bruce Bundy **

 

Bruce is a professional musician as well.

A Brief Bio on Bruce Bundy Bruce has been playing Strat-o-matic since 1969 and he is definitely one of us, an SOM Fanatic. Bruce is an excellent SOM Baseball Manager which we have observed with his presence in the CBA (our computer league which Marc is commissioner). --> Bruce has published over 30 (up to about 60 now) formulas on how to create Strat-O-Matic Baseball cards from scratch along with other articles and antics with his friend Glenn Guzzo (shared when the Strat-Fan SOM Magazine existed). --> He ran the official "Strat-O-Matic BBS" Bulletin Board from 1987 to 1992. At Bob Winberry's request, Bruce recruited Will Kolodzie's SOMWorld as our official SOM Online Magazine (now supplemented with this newsletter) - and, I also recruited Dan Patterson for our Official Strat-O-Matic Web Forum. -->  Bruce has been a Strat-O-Matic Beta Tester for many years which has resulted in various improvements within the SOM Baseball game.

Now for the STRAT THOUGHTS column January, 2014,

Bruce Bundy presents:

Questions about a Player's Performance
when they are in a Draft League
submitted by member Chuck Tinkler, answered by Bruce Bundy

Chuck Tinkler:  Bruce, my understanding of SOM is that it is at its core a baseball replay game - the cards are designed to bring about results that mimic players' individual performances as well as try to recreate the final standings for a given season. A lot of guys though, like me, play in draft leagues where these players are taken out of the context they were created for and I've always wondered....how much of a difference does this make? I've put together a few examples situations below and am hoping you could provide some insight, thanks, Chuck

Using Tulo for example, say he gets 400 at bats in a season versus rhp and hits 20 homeruns. If he does this while playing half his games at Coors, what would his homer chances look like? How many would be straight, how many would be diamonds?

Say Tulo had gotten traded to the Padres and put up the exact same numbers, 20 homers in 400 at bats versus rhp, how different would his power numbers look? Would he have less diamonds and more straight shots? This is the long way of asking, when SOM creates player cards, how much variation would you see for power units between two starkly contrasted environments? (Maybe the Astrodome would have made for a better example for a low diamond park.)

Assuming that there is a decent amount of variation there, would you hesitate to acquire a player like Tulo if your ballpark was significantly less than the 1-19 environment his card was designed for? Maybe Tulo is a bad example because he's awesome anywhere, but what about a guy like Curtis Granderson, who's value is really homer-dependent and who played in a high homer park like Yankee Stadium?

What if in the season that this Tulo card was created there were a ton of homeruns hit, like an amount that would make the steroid era look tame - would Tulo's card suffer because SOM assumes that he'll have more chances based on the opponents he'll face? Another way of asking this is, does the baseline that SOM uses for the collective pitching a batter is presumed to face change every year? If a batter put up the exact same numbers in two different seasons (and in the same park), would their cards be different based on what the league's pitching did as a whole that season?

Bruce Bundy:

Hi Alls!  Hi Chuck!

 Fine questions, Chuck - these question touch at Strat-O-Matic philosophical arguments - and are questions seldom asked.  Your questions/statements:

-  the cards are designed to bring about results that mimic players' individual performances as well as try to recreate the final standings.

Not mimic, but duplicate.  Numbers are that way, Chuck!  When put to the test - mankind has gotten quite good at making numbers work for us!  They are to be exact - and nothing less.   The limitations of duplicity has two aspects - the formula and our random generator, the dice rolls.

The SOM game lathe is a well thought out approach to this mathematical problem and game designing.  It is built around the concept of taking the mountain of pitcher/batter data available, and creating formulas designed to repeat at the same regularity every baseball statistical event occurred (boxscore information, for example).  The ideal cumulative result is to have so many factors duplicating, that the team will, in fact, play together in a sense, duplicate a team's win/loss.

This is not an easy feat.  This is also a dice game. The Strat-O-Matic game is basically designed to allow for 4,320 chances to "Swing Away" - the roll of two dice (36 chances) times 6 columns (totaling 216 chances) times 20 (the occasional 1-20 split deck). A result of WALK on 12 is equal to 20 chances, for example. In almost all regards, the 4320 system has stood up excellently as the foundation to the SOM number generating system. Hal in a 90's interview (about the evolution of X-Charts I believe), talked about great consideration given to preventing the addition of any rolls to the game, or anything that will prolong the game itself.

The other aspect of significance is the formulas.  They are the gears that make the clock tick.  If they are inaccurate, so is the clock.  So, add "Probability" to the picture, and this endeavor becomes quite the challenge.

-  Using Tulo for example, say he gets 400 at bats....Say Tulo had gotten traded to the Padres...(should I) hesitate to acquire a player like Tulo ...

Tulowitski is a great example.  Not only will he lose a whopping 2.125 (4.25 for 81 games) of hits every at-bat of every game, and 30L/84R hr every swing as well.  Still, a great card - but defines Coors-versus-Clergymen Fields more than Tulowitski.  I always want great players like Tulowitski - he's a great player at this point, but the ballpark you use is always a serious factor.  The ballpark move, for example, costs him deeply. Tulowitski projects to him hitting 20 HRs instead of the 25 he hit for Colorado - taking 5 HRs from him in a replay!  The Steroid Era is, in most degrees, is over, and you can clearly see that in the numbers

I personally prefer lowest-hit/HR fields, and here's why.  My picking the high -hit/HR park, you may increase the value of the fielders, but seriously compromise even a great pitching staff.  If you also believe that Fielding matters, then the high-hitting compromises getting good fielding.  I'm a believer that "Pitching Wins Pennants", I guess...

Chuck Tinkler:  Lastly, how much does having the lackluster 2013 Detroit defense behind Verlander help his card? (Cabrera at 3rd, Peralta a shortstop, etc.) And how does the stellar Tampa Bay infield hurt David Price's card? I base this on the assumption that the 2013 Tampa Bay infield, Longo, Escobar, Zobrist (three '1's') and Loney (a '2'), would take away many of the hits Price would give up over the course of a season and they'd have to be added back to his card. Is this difference really enough to take consideration when drafting or trading for a guy? Are Tiger pitchers a better buy because they'll have less hits and more GBA's on their card based on the bad defense that backed them?

Bruce Bundy:

-  does having the lackluster 2013 Detroit defense behind Verlander help his card?

 Yes - it is not abysmal, but sure to take a hit or 2 off!

- how does the stellar Tampa Bay infield hurt David Price's card?

Definitely - add 5 - 6 hit to the basic card!

One great thing about the ageless Strat-O-Matic Baseball Game is I have never seen the game engine compromised by a bad decision by Hal.  The game, as a result, has never had a failed year.  Never.  Never has there been a failed Strat-O-Matic Baseball game set.  Yet, they have always had an ear to the tracks.  When SOM used the one-pattern system in 1980, they reprinted the cards using the different patterns.  Good business, Strat!

(Wolfman: If you have a question for Bruce Bundy feel free to send it to me at: wolfman@ultimatestratbaseball.com -- and I will make sure Bruce gets it to answer in a future issue in his column - thanks Chuck for sending in these great questions?

Bruce Bundy Website: http://www.cba-bb.net/Bundy.htm

Link to his Small Ball Video - take a look: http://users.wowway.com/~faust05/bb1.flv

 

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Contained inside this exciting issue of Ultimate Strat Baseball Newsletter:
(to view the various interviews, articles, columns and special sections click on the links {underlined} and this will take you to the appropriate webpage)
 

♦  RETURN TO NEWSLETTER MAIN PAGE

♦  INTERVIEW with DEL NEWELL, retired Editor of the "Strat-o-matic Review"

♦  SOM BASEBALL WORLD NEWS, a new page to share interesting news related to
Strat-o-matic Baseball.

♦  ARTICLE with MIKE SANCLEMENTE, founder of Stratogists.com
(Mike takes us on a delightful journey with his article "Koji vs. Bill Gates" and then discusses how
 using Excel spreadsheets can take you far with your league's team strategy)

♦  EARLY SOM CONVENTIONS COLUMN with WOLFMAN SHAPIRO -- editor of
"The Ultimate Strat Newsletter" and 2012 CBA Champion. Wolfman takes us back in
this article to the seventh national Strat-o-matic Convention in 1979 held in Champaign-Urbana, IL, at the University of Illinois as the Wolfman and his buddies organize their sixth convention. Wolfman will be our guide through the first nine conventions happening through 1980 of which he was present at each one. This particular column now moves into the 1974-1980 era when the conventions moved to Illinois. We will continue to share one new convention in each future issue till all of these early conventions are published. Also we hope this column will inspire our readers to help us create a SOM On-line Baseball Convention in the near future.

♦  COMMISSIONER's CORNER with MARC WASSERMAN -- commissioner of the Cyber Baseball Association (CBA) continues his column about what it is like to be a League Commissioner. In this article he turns his focus to how things wok in the CBA and via the Strat Alliance introduces us to another baseball league that has existed for 43 years.

♦  ARTICLE with WOLFMAN SHAPIRO -- Wolfman discusses his strategies how to build a very successful team in a draft SOM baseball league where you keep your players form year to year.

♦  RECOMMEND ON-LINE SOM RESOURCES -- On-line Strat-o-matic and Baseball related websites that offer amazing information, special tools and products to improve your game play that we strongly recommend. In most cases, we have had personal contact with these sources who agree with the principle to work together and help promote each other.

♦  BOOK REVIEW with WOLFMAN SHAPIRO Wolfman takes a peek at the "The Bill James Handbook 2014" created by Bill James and John Dewan through Baseball Info Solutions (BIS) and why if there is one book on baseball you must have, this is it!! Also speaks to Ben Jedlovec of BIS to discuss the book a bit more.

♦  BOOKS TO DIE FOR and Become a BASEBALL GURU -- This page is specifically about special books we are finding that either will expand your insights about the game of Baseball, help you in the creation of your current league teams or with your replays and learn more about the Strat-o-matic Base Game and Game Company's history.  We have a special arrangement with Acta Sports, who is a publisher of a number of great baseball books (including Bill James Handbooks) to offer for our members a 10% discount. We will continue to add more books to this page in the future as we uncover other gems our members should know about.

 

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